transcript

Kaylie Rogers: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis just announced that he is running for president. He is probably former President Donald Trump’s most significant opponent for the Republican nomination. Now that it’s officially out, I spoke with FiveThirtyEight Senior Election Analyst Geoffrey Skelly to learn more about the campaign and whether he really has a chance of winning the GOP nomination.

Okay Jeffrey, so we’ve been waiting a while for Ron DeSantis to announce. Many expected him to run away. What has made him such an important figure in the Republican Party over the last couple of years?

Geoffrey Skelly: That’s right, if you trace the past of Ron DeSantis, for example, how he got here, then it begins in 2018: he becomes the governor of Florida. This is the third largest state in the country, so it will immediately draw attention to you. Then he really started to get some attention in 2020 and 2021, making a lot of headlines focused mostly on culture war issues. For example, he moved to reopen the state shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2022 it sparked controversy from migrants boarding the plane to the liberal Martha’s Vineyard.

And then, over the last couple of years, I think he was especially leaning towards what he called:

Ron DeSantis: Florida is a place where people wake up to die.

Skeleton: For example, last year he signed the so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill, which bans discussion of sexuality and gender identity in kindergarten through 3rd grade. high school all this made him darling of the conservative mediawhat particularly appealed to him as a future candidate in 2022, both before and after re-election.

Rogers: So he is obviously a serious opponent of Trump, but does he really stand a chance of beating Trump in the nomination?

Skeleton: It’s still early, and I think it’s important to highlight this, but DeSantis may be the only Republican who can beat Trump in the 2024 GOP primary. Currently, in the national polling average for FiveThirtyEight in the Republican primary, DeSantis is about 21 percent. Trump has 53 percent, so that might not sound like a good deal for DeSantis. However, historically, someone voting at the DeSantis level would have about a 1 in 3 chance of winning the party nomination, although such a candidate would not normally face someone else with about 50 percent of the vote.

However, DeSantis has seen a downturn over the past few months. In the run-up to the New Year, he actually outperformed Trump in some in-person polls and was not far behind Trump in polls testing most potential candidates. So you may ask what happened? Well, Trump is definitely part of that story. Trump announced his candidacy back in November and sought to identify DeSantis early on from the start, while DeSantis was not actively involved in the race. Trump called him “DeSanctimonious” in the classic Trump form, and also attacked DeSantis for supporting cuts to welfare programs such as Social Security and Medicare when he was a congressman.

The flood of negative stories probably hurt DeSantis too. The scrutiny of media attention has raised questions about DeSantis’ personal appeal, whether face-to-face with voters or his fellow Republicans. For example, Trump was able to convince a majority of Republican members of Congress from Florida to support him over DeSantis. All this has prompted some GOP donors and strategists worry about his strength as a candidate. So it all kind of worked together, I think that caused DeSantis to be downgraded when he was running.

Rogers: Yes, one of Trump’s most creative nicknames is “Ron DeSanktimonius.” Maybe not as catchy as Sleepy Joe Biden. Let’s see. It looks like DeSantis is starting his campaign a little out of his depth. However, is it possible to recover?

Skeleton: I think Trump is the favorite. No questions. But DeSantis has a lot more to go, as the Republican race is really gaining momentum now that he’s officially in it. First, he has all these conservative political achievements in Florida that he can sell to the party base as proof that he can “make America Florida,” as he puts it in a recent book.

And while he’s lost ground in the polls, he’s in better shape than virtually any other Republican nominee — no one else gets 6 percent in our average national poll. And, as he showed in his 2022 presidential race, DeSantis can raise tons of money. So, assuming he can do it again for his presidential campaign, you can see that he will be able to raise the high level of financial support needed for a really big campaign.

And so, aside from his resume and fundraising prowess, I also think another thing that could help DeSantis is that the media is already hankering to write a DeSantis comeback story. And if you’re going to fight, let it be before you officially enter the race, you know? Now the situation is such that any positive story for DeSantis, whether it’s a retaliation against Trump or perhaps getting a new endorsement from someone significant in the party, could contribute to the resurgence of the narrative. Borrow the nickname Bill Clinton gave himself back in 1992maybe DeSantis will even become a “comeback kid” in the 2024 Republican primary.