The United States has bolstered its defenses in East Asia by gaining year-round permanent access to nine bases in the Philippines. These are not American bases, but American troops are free to move in and out for exercises or, for that matter, to participate in a real war.

More than 17,000 U.S. and Filipino troops are supporting bases this month in biggest war games in the Philippines in years. Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. reversed the policies of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who undermined the US-Philippines alliance by flirting with China. Duterte believed warm relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping were necessary to prevent armed conflict in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims belongs to China.

Bongbong, whose father, Ferdinand Marcos, ruled as dictator for 18 years before being overthrown in People Power Revolution in 1986 – decided that the future lay in the resumption of close ties with Washington. The Americans had to evacuate their huge air and naval bases more than 30 years ago after the Philippine Senate refused to renew the lease. They would not return in the same huge numbers, but Bongbong decided they were needed while China was harassing Philippine vessels, driving them out of their regular fishing grounds and threatening to take over the small Philippine islands.

The change in Philippine policy is similar to that in South Korea, where President Yoon Seok-yeol has approved joint South Korean-U.S. land, air and sea exercises for the first time since Donald Trump foolishly canceled them after a summit with North Korea. Kim Jong Un of Korea in Singapore in 2018.

Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who met Kim on the line at Panmunjom before the Singapore summit and saw him again in Pyongyang, disapproved of the joint exercise until the end of his presidency. Until this year, Americans and South Koreans had to make do with complicated war games on pc – not exactly like living troops simulating actions in the real world.

The decisions of President Marcos and President Yun to bolster defenses from Northeast to Southeast Asia come with inherent risks.

In the Philippines, the idea of ​​strengthening mutual defense by US and Philippine forces is a challenge to Chinese forces, which have been extension air and naval bases on the Spratly Islands for many years. The Chinese protest whenever US naval vessels raise the flag and challenge China’s claim to control one of the world’s most important international waterways.

Most recently, China accused the US destroyer Milius of violating its “undisputed sovereignty.” cruising within 12 miles of an airstrip the Chinese built on Mischief Reef in the Spratlys.

The reef was once partly flooded, depending on the weather and tides, but Chinese engineers have turned it into a permanent site that plays a central role in protecting their rights to the surrounding sea. The fact that the Chinese have turned the reef into a base doesn’t justify their “excessive claims,” ​​he said. statement issued by the US Seventh Fleet.

One of the Philippine bases that the Americans have access to is on the long southwestern Philippine island of Palawan, facing the South China Sea. The US and China refrained from opening fire, but sometimes their planes flew dangerously close to each other.

The standoff in these waters is similar to what is happening on the Korean Peninsula, where North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered the testing of the latest missiles. The North Koreans and Americans are unlikely to start shooting at each other, but the risks increase as long as the Chinese keep the North on a sustenance of oil and food.

Integral to the growing confrontation are the dangers in the waters surrounding Taiwan, a Chinese breakaway province off the coast of China between South Korea and the Philippines.

Almost regularly, Chinese aircraft fly into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, and Chinese warships approach the territorial waters of the island. This is a game of intimidation to punish Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen for counseling with the Americans, from whom she counts on weapons and much more, although the United States recognizes Beijing as the capital of a “united China.”

Meetings between Tsai and two speakers of the US House of Representatives, first of the Democratic Party Nancy Pelosiwhich stopped in August and then the Republican Kevin McCarthywhom Tsai saw this month at the Ronald Reagan Library outside of Los Angeles, outraged Beijing.

The Chinese are no less concerned about the restoration of close relations between the United States and the Philippines. Three of the nine Filipino bases the Americans have access to are within easy reach of Taiwan, and President Biden has pledged that the US will honor its “commitment” to defend Taiwan.

In the event of a war over Taiwan, South Korea will not want to join the battle. The Koreans do not want to upset China with a conflict over the island. South Korea, like most other countries, including its American ally, only recognizes Taiwan as a province of China, which is by far the South’s largest trading partner.

The proximity of these Philippine bases to Taiwan is just as important as their connection to the South China Sea. American warships periodically enter the Taiwan Strait, as well as the South China Sea. As if battle formations are being drawn up for a decisive battle, although real war remains a distant cloud on the horizon.

Donald Kirk has been a journalist for over 60 years, devoting most of his career to conflicts in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and the Chicago Tribune. He is currently a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea. He is the author of several books on Asian affairs.