Even if you don’t know its name, the red supergiant star Betelgeuse is one of the most familiar sights in the sky above – a glowing red dot on the shoulder of the constellation Orion. While Betelgeuse is already pretty hard to miss, over the past few years it has become even more attractive due to major changes in its appearance – unexpected fluctuations in its brightness, which are still poorly understood. In recent weeks, the star has at times shone more than 50 percent brighter than usual, drawing the attention of amateur skywatchers and professional astronomers alike. These people, I hope, are waiting for a historic celestial event. You see, someday Betelgeuse will end its life with a supernova explosion, and from our planetary perch just 650 light-years away, we earthlings will be at the forefront of this spectacular cosmic cataclysm.
But does this flash of insight herald Betelgeuse at its peak? And what would such a nearby supernova look like?
Despite the passionate wishes of astronomers, it is vanishingly unlikely that anyone living today will see the big explosion of Betelgeuse. Based on the brightness, color, size and estimated age of the star, scientists believe that Betelgeuse is still in the early stages of the process of converting helium into carbon, which must then turn into oxygen, then into silicon, and finally into iron. At this point, Betelgeuse’s core will no longer be able to receive energy from further fusion reactions, causing the star to collapse under its own weight and burst into pieces.
“We know that Betelgeuse will explode soon, but “soon” is somewhere in the next 10,000 to 100,000 years,” says Jared Goldberg, an astrophysicist at the Flatiron Institute in New York. “I’m not going to bet my career on Betelgeuse blowing up…right now.”
However, when the day comes, it will be amazing. The first harbinger of a supernova will be subtle but unmistakable, a shower of ghostly neutrinos emitted during the collapse of a star that suddenly bathes the Earth, illuminating detectors across the globe. Shortly thereafter, as high-energy photons erupted from the dense, expanding cloud of stellar debris, the real fireworks began. “We would see Betelgeuse getting really bright — about 10,000, 100,000 times brighter than usual — on a weekly scale,” says Goldberg. Depending on how powerful the explosion is, the supernova remnant could become about a quarter or half as bright as a full moon, concentrated in a single point of light — bright enough to be visible during the day and cast harsh shadows. at night.
And the spectacle will be long enough for everyone to see. “It stays really bright for a very long time — I mean, long for a news cycle, short for a human lifetime, infinitely short for a star’s lifetime,” says Goldberg. For astronomers, the explosion and its aftermath will be a watershed moment, offering a unique opportunity for close-up observations that are sure to uncover many amazing discoveries.
Conveniently, Betelgeuse is far enough away that we humans won’t suffer any ill effects from the explosion itself. But mankind’s long history of supernova sightings makes it clear that this event will still have consequences. “The sky would change so dramatically and be so visible to everyone, which would really cause a huge reaction around the world,” says Brian Penpraz, an astronomer at Soka American University.
Stargazers of the past tended to take supernovae as bad omens, says Penpras, and in today’s climate of disinformation and denial of science, the demise of Betelgeuse could elicit some unsettling reactions. “In this age where people are already a little unstable, the outbreak of such a star will definitely cause a lot of funny, interesting and perhaps even disturbing speculation from different sections of our population,” he says.
Although we have become quite out of touch with the skies, the Betelgeuse supernova would be impossible to ignore. “To break out of this total ignorance of the sky for something as dramatic as this would be a huge impact,” Penpras says. “Perhaps it could even revive the interest of the whole civilization in astronomy.”
However, Betelgeuse’s modern antics don’t have to end with an explosion to be intriguing, Goldberg argues. Its curious swing between dimming and flashing “is still indicative of some really cool physics,” he says. “The fact that stars pulsate on a human time scale is very cool.”
Astronomers have long known that Betelgeuse periodically brightens and dims – in fact, records from both the Australian Aborigines and the ancient Greeks suggest that this cycle was already known to various cultures across the planet millennia ago. Nowadays, this cycle lasts about 400 days, but now the star’s brightness fluctuates much faster, on the order of 130 days, says Andrea Dupree, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, which tracks the star.
And Betelgeuse’s current dynamics seem to be related to its so-called Great Blackout in late 2019 and early 2020, which scientists attribute to the star’s massive bloat of gas and dust. “Just imagine if you take a piece of material. Then everything else will rush in and it will splatter,” says Dupree. The resulting quagmire of turbulent plasma and magnetic fields could help explain why the star is currently much brighter than the 400-day cycle predicts.
Dupri compares unscheduled lightening to the roar of an out-of-balance washing machine. “I think what’s happening is that the top layers are having trouble bouncing back,” she says. “We hope that eventually he will return to his 400 days, but right now he is struggling.”